Betting on Anything

Gambling is a source of entertainment for many.  I remember my grandmother going to Bingo several times a week, I have friends who like to go to casinos, and I know others who play lotteries on a regular basis.  I have even been known to buy a square or two during for the Superbowl.  Beyond that I’m not much of a gambler.  I did attend a conference in Las Vegas once and hit the slot machines and blackjack tables for a little bit but that got old real fast.

As I was trolling the Internet for data on the upcoming Presidential Election I discovered a site making ‘predictions’ on the outcome that was designed much like a stock trading site.   It’s called Intrade Prediction Markets.  Basically, you can buy and sell ’shares’ in your candidate’s ‘chance at winning’.  If your candidate wins then you make some money….if they lose…then you lose.  It’s an interesting concept and it balances the price between those who feel the candidate will win and those who don’t feel they will win.  Side note: I have not done this….and I don’t plan to.

As I dug deeper I realized this site lets you ‘buy shares’ in a wide variety of ‘events’ including things like weather events, entertainment, the economy, sports, etc.  I can, for instance buy shares in the belief that the last named storm of this season will be ‘Teddy’.  It’s currently going at $12.30 for a share of this.

You need to go to the site and read up on this concept a bit more if it interests you.  It’d probably be a neat teaching tool for the areas of statistics or the stock market.  Here’s what puts it in perspective for me: Shares of Barack Obama are currently $87.70 and John McCain is going at $12.70….that should tell you something!  If I buy Obama at $87.70 and he wins then I get $100.00($12.30 profit)…..and if I buy McCain at $12.70 and he wins then I get $100.00 ($87.30 profit).  I believe Obama, despite the smaller potential return, is the best bet!

This entry was posted on October 27, 2008 at 1:41 pm and is filed under Politics, Web Sites. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.